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Pensioners will be worth 5% of Gross Budget Product

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Ministry of Finance has already divided the skin unreformed pension system. Now proposals (including a gradual increase in retirement age) to be discussed behind closed doors the leaders of the country, but as they say, “Vedomosti”, the ministry has plans to save by reducing the deficit of the Pension Fund 2% of GDP per year.

But soon you may find that reforms, even the most stringent and unpopular, will not lead to any reduction in the deficit. On the contrary, it is likely the state will have to spend more money on the maintenance cost of the pension system, forgetting about the other costs.

This forecast gives the UBS analysts Dmitry Vinogradov and Bella Rabinowitz. According to their model was built without the reform of the Pension Fund deficit in 2031 will reach 5.5% of GDP and the budget to maintain it will be worth 4.8% of GDP.

For comparison – in this year’s deficit is 1.83% of GDP and the budget transfers to the Pension Fund 1% of GDP.

All the reforms recorded in the project “Strategy 2020″ which discusses the government, even in the hard case (with a gradual increase in retirement age to 63 years for men and women) will give maximum economy 1.9% of GDP after 2030.

The authors of the strategy believe that by the time the Pension Fund deficit will increase “only” up to 2% of GDP. At UBS disagree with them.

Rising deficits

Vinogradov and Rabinovich predicted the development of the pension system in Russia up to 2031 in case the reform did not take place:

Population decline has slowed in recent years, and with the migration in 2011, it actually increased by 165 000. However, the improvement of demographic situation in the pension system means extra problems. Reducing mortality will lead to an aging population is projected to Rosstat, so that the working-age population will fall, and retirees – to grow. By 2031 work will be a little more than 75 million people, and in retirement will be more than 40 million

Opportunities to expand the current “joint” system of filling the Pension Fund – where current workers pay current retirees – no. Attempt to fill the pension fund by raising insurance premiums have already recognized the failure. This leads to a reduction in other taxes, inhibition of the economy, and a hole in the pension fund could not close.

Economists at UBS in the forecast took into account that, as now, not all working-age population will work. Unemployment in 2031 will decrease to 5.6%, but 13.5% of the population of working age either can not work for medical reasons, or do not want to. Another 5% will receive a “social pension” for disability and professional reasons.

Wages in Russia, it will also be paid partly shady schemes – it will reduce the income of pension fund by 20%.

Economists have suggested that pensions in real terms will grow annually by 3.5% to 2031.

Conclusion: by 2031 the real deficit will grow to nearly PF 13.4 trillion rubles., Or 5.5% of GDP. The budget will go to fund 11.5 trillion rubles., Or 4.8% of GDP.

This will be a threat to financial stability in Russia.


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